The Euphrates Basin in Iraq is facing a severe crisis marked by dwindling water releases from Turkey and Syria, compounded by a delayed rainy season. Without urgent and effective measures, the situation is likely to worsen significantly.
The Ministry of Water Resources has designated this year as a “drought with distinction,” as revealed in the latest session of the Parliamentary Water Committee. Ongoing negotiations with Syrian authorities focus on securing a fair distribution of Euphrates River water, an essential effort to maintain a consistent flow to Iraq.
Historically, Iraq has struggled since the mid-20th century to establish definitive solutions to its recurrent water crises. Countries like Turkey and Iran have increasingly leveraged their control of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for political and economic gain, further complicating Iraq’s efforts to secure its water rights.
For over a century, successive Iraqi governments have failed to finalize binding agreements with their upstream neighbors that would guarantee Mesopotamia’s water rights in perpetuity.
According to MP Thaer al-Jubouri, a member of the parliamentary committee, the Euphrates water issue has garnered significant attention from the Iraqi government. Al-Jubouri noted a marked improvement in water releases from Syria over the last weeks, particularly following December 8. He pointed out that control by the Qasd forces over a dam on the Euphrates previously limited water access to Iraq, although the current flow has improved.
He further elaborated that negotiations with Syria are aimed at enhancing water releases to alleviate the drought crisis afflicting the Euphrates Basin in recent years. Iraq has partially addressed these drought conditions by channeling water from the Tigris River to the Euphrates through an extension known as the Tigris arm.
The Iraqi government is actively working to secure its rightful share of Euphrates water, crucial for sustaining large populations and critical agricultural sectors. Moreover, climate change impacts exceed environmental concerns, posing direct threats to social and economic stability. The water scarcity has been linked to increasing tribal conflicts in Southern Iraq, exemplified by recent violent confrontations in Maysan Governorate over water access in the village of Al-Abyad, near the border with Iran.
Similarly, the Qal’at Saleh region in Maysan recently witnessed five fatalities stemming from an armed tribal conflict ignited by water scarcity.
Looking ahead, Iraq is set to host the fifth annual water conference from April 27 to 29, coinciding with the 11th World Conference on Drought Management, supported by various international organizations.
The SPI drought index for December 2024 indicates severe drought conditions across all of Iraq (ranging from 1.6 to 1.8), highlighting the urgency of the situation as reported by the Iraqi Air Residence Authority.
Iraq ranks among the countries most adversely affected by climate change, identified as the fifth most vulnerable globally. Over the past four decades, water flow from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which supply 98% of Iraq’s surface water, has dwindled by 30 to 40% due to decreased rainfall, heightened evaporation from rising temperatures, and the construction of dams in upstream nations.
International forecasts predict that by 2035, Iraq may face a deficit of up to 10 billion cubic meters of water, as expanding drought conditions and soil mismanagement impact 39% of Iraqi land, leading to declines in agricultural output.
Noted political and human rights advocate Bakhtiar Amin has emphasized that Iraq could internationalize the water issue, though it has primarily relied on diplomatic dialogue with its neighbors. He cautioned that neighboring countries exploit their water resources as leverage, simultaneously exporting agricultural products to Iraq while restricting water supply. He urged for greater international pressure on upstream countries and noted previous discussions with the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Iraq’s case has drawn parallels to a past dispute between Hungary and Slovakia, with expectations of favorable consideration; however, he lamented the lack of serious progress from Iraqi officials regarding international efforts.
Iraq is losing approximately 100 square kilometers of agricultural land annually due to desertification. The Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources has projected that severe droughts could entirely deplete the Euphrates River in its southern reaches by 2025, while the Tigris may become a limited resource.
Concerns over a potentially dry winter have emerged among observers, as Iraq historically faces similar climatic patterns. However, the present circumstances, defined by critical water challenges, pose significant threats to future agricultural production.
On December 18, 2024, Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, leader of the Future of Iraq coalition, warned of dire implications from current winter conditions for the next five years. He indicated that farmers may need to adopt drip irrigation systems to curb water waste while urging the government to take immediate actions to enhance Iraq’s water quotas through diplomatic and economic strategies.
Iraq’s total consumption requirement stands at approximately 53 billion cubic meters annually, against an estimated river water availability of 77 billion cubic meters during favorable seasons and 44 billion cubic meters during drought periods. A loss of one billion cubic meters of Iraq’s water share translates to 260,000 dunums of agricultural land out of production.
According to projections from the “Water Strain Index,” by 2040 Iraq may face a future devoid of flowing rivers, as both major rivers are expected to cease reaching the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, studies indicate that by 2025, Iraq will clearly exhibit the ramifications of severe drought throughout the country, with the Euphrates River approaching total desiccation and the Tigris River transforming into a limited waterway.
Rising temperatures have led to a substantial reduction in annual precipitation, currently down 30% and predicted to drop by 65% by 2050. In March 2024, Prime Minister Mohammed Shi’a Al-Sudani revealed that climate change has impacted seven million Iraqis, combined with upstream nations monopolizing freshwater sources. The construction of major dams by Turkey and Iran has blocked approximately 70% of Iraq’s water share, further exacerbating the crisis and positioning Iraq among the five most climate-affected nations globally.
Notably, Iraq has recently begun to exploit groundwater resources for the first time in its history, with available groundwater supply estimated at 140 billion cubic meters. However, the three principal dams—Mosul, Dukan, and Al-Thadhar—are showing signs of strain, prompting specialists to warn of a looming new environmental catastrophe.
