The Future Iraq Foundation, focused on economic and statistical analysis, revealed on Monday that Iraq’s population is growing at an annual rate of over one million people, while the poverty rate is projected to escalate beyond 80% by 2040.
According to the head of the Foundation, Manar Al-Ubaidi, Iraq’s population currently stands at 46 million, as confirmed by the Ministry of Planning. Detailed census results are expected to be published on February 24.
Al-Ubaidi mentioned that the annual population growth rate is at 2.53%, which translates to an increase of over one million individuals each year. Projections suggest that the population will surpass 50 million by 2030 and exceed 70 million by 2040.
On the issue of poverty, Al-Ubaidi explained that the Ministry of Planning reported a current poverty rate of 17.5%. This indicates that for every 30 Iraqis, 5 individuals fall below the poverty line. However, this figure varies significantly across different regions, with Al-Muthanna Governorate reporting a staggering 40%, equating to 2 out of every 5 residents in Samawah living under the poverty threshold.
Al-Ubaidi emphasized that the root issue in Iraq extends beyond oil prices and geopolitical tensions; it concerns a rapidly growing demographic challenge. He highlighted that with a current budget of 160 trillion dinars, if the government cannot bring the poverty rate down from 17%, achieving a goal of below 5% poverty in a population of 70 million by 2040 would require an annual budget exceeding 300 trillion dinars. He also noted that if oil prices are estimated at $50 per barrel by 2040, Iraq would need to export 12.5 million barrels daily to generate sufficient revenue for these expenditures.
According to Al-Ubaidi’s analysis, if the existing situation of production and revenue remains static, while the budget continues unchanged, poverty rates might rise to 23% by 2030 and could skyrocket to 84% by 2040, especially if oil prices decline without substantial reform.
He cautioned that Iraq faces a significant and urgent demographic challenge that necessitates immediate action. There is a pressing need for awareness campaigns focused on curbing population growth, augmenting government revenues, and diversifying the economy. Absent these corrective measures, Iraq risks devolving into a nation plagued by severe crises akin to those affecting certain nations in Africa, which grapple with poverty, tribal conflicts, famine, and widespread crime.
Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi, a former spokesman for the Ministry of Planning, recently confirmed that the ministry is formulating a five-year strategic plan aimed at combating severe poverty. This initiative will encompass a range of procedures and policies designed to empower the impoverished across various sectors, notably health, education, housing, and income enhancement.
Official statistics indicate that approximately 3 million individuals currently receive monthly financial assistance from the government, although the total number eligible for aid is around 9 million, highlighting the constraints posed by limited financial allocations.
