Economic Insights: Climate Impact on Cocoa Production
Recent data reveals that climate change has led to unprecedented temperature increases in the Cocoa belt of West Africa, significantly impacting the region’s vital cocoa crops. A comprehensive report indicates that, in 2024, temperatures exceeded 32 degrees Celsius for over six weeks across 71 percent of farms analyzed. This trend is largely attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as noted by researchers from the independent Claymit Central research center.
Temperatures beyond the optimal growth threshold for cocoa trees are detrimental to their development. Excessive heat disrupts photosynthesis and exacerbates water stress, resulting in flower wilting and stunted plant growth. The report highlights that the occurrence of temperatures above 32 °C has become increasingly common, specifically during the critical growth season from October to March, which is essential for the cocoa harvest.
The research underscores how climate change is not only raising temperatures but also contributing to irregular rainfall patterns and an escalation of pest infestations, all of which threaten cocoa production and lead to a surge in prices. This phenomenon is particularly observed in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s leading cocoa producers. The findings are based on a decade’s worth of data collected from 44 regions spanning four countries, supplemented by predictive simulation models.
For instance, cocoa trees in Ivory Coast faced a significant increase in extreme temperature occurrences that could have been mitigated without the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. The report also notes that in July 2024, Ivory Coast experienced a 40 percent increase in rainfall, leading to excess water in fields, complicating the drying process of the beans. Conversely, insufficient rainfall was recorded in December, a crucial period for the initiation of the agricultural season.
Echoing these findings, a separate analysis raises alarms about the escalating challenges cocoa producers face due to climate change. The report emphasizes that cocoa livelihoods are critical for many of the poorest populations globally, with climate change posing severe risks to their sustainability. Osai Osigo, director of the Cocoa Cocoa campaign, articulates the growing concern, stating that the impacts threaten the very livelihoods of vulnerable communities.
As a direct consequence of diminished crop yields, cocoa prices have surged markedly since late 2023 in major markets. Prices peaked at over $12,500 per ton on December 18 in New York, remaining above $10,000 as Valentine’s Day approached. This dramatic increase comes after a prolonged period where cocoa prices stabilized between $2,000 to $3,000 for more than a decade, signifying a profound shift in the market landscape.
To stay updated on economic developments, subscribe to our channel on Tilekram
