Economy Update – Follow-up
The latest monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated a rise in Iranian oil production for February; however, the prolonged high pricing of Iranian heavy oil came to an end last month.
According to OPEC’s report on the oil market, the price of Iranian heavy oil in February stood at $77.41 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $2.24, or 2.8%, from the January average of $79.65. The average price for Iranian heavy oil in 2025 thus far is $78.58, compared to the average of $80.24 recorded in 2024.
Furthermore, the price of the OPEC oil basket fell by $2.57, or 3.2%, in February, reaching $76.81 per barrel. So far, the average price of the OPEC oil basket in 2025 is $78.16 per barrel, a decrease of $2.47, or 3.1%, compared to the average of $80.62 in 2024.
OPEC’s secondary statistics reveal that total production from the 12 member countries reached 26.860 million barrels per day in February, marking an increase of 154,000 barrels per day compared to the prior month. Notable production increases were observed in Iran, the UAE, and Nigeria, while Gabon and the Republic of the Congo experienced declines. Specifically, Iran’s production rose by 34,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 3.308 million barrels per day.
This period also saw the total output from the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement rise to 14.151 million barrels per day, reflecting a monthly increase of 208,000 barrels.
OPEC’s data indicates that Kazakhstan contributed significantly to the collective OPEC+ production in February, exceeding its production pledges and reaching 1.468 million barrels per day, well above its target under the OPEC+ agreement.
The report further noted a slight decline in Russian oil production, which fell from 8.977 million barrels per day in January to 8.973 million barrels per day in February, a decrease of 0.04%. This figure is marginally below Russia’s OPEC+ designated quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, it is anticipated that Russia’s share will increase to 9.004 million barrels per day starting in April, aligned with an overall rise in OPEC+ production.
In light of these developments, Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, recently stated that OPEC+ has agreed to boost oil production beginning in April, while also suggesting that adjustments could be made in response to market deficits.
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