Economic Outlook for Morocco: IMF Projections for 2024-2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a growth rate of 3.2% for Morocco’s economy in 2024, which is projected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2025. These forecasts were made following the IMF staff’s discussions with Moroccan authorities regarding Article IV consultations conducted from January 27 to February 7, 2025.
Roberto Kurdarili, leading the IMF delegation, highlighted the rebound in agricultural production following recent droughts and the robust expansion of the non-agricultural sector, which is fueled by strong domestic demand. This positive outlook is expected to contribute to an increase in the current account deficit, projected to align with its historical average of approximately 3%. Additionally, inflation is anticipated to stabilize around 2%.
The IMF team assessed that while the risks surrounding these projections are generally balanced, there remains considerable uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions and shifting climatic conditions.
Experts from Bank Al-Maghrib concur that adjustments to the base interest rates should be driven by economic indicators. With inflation returning to approximately 2%, the Bank is expected to move forward in developing a framework aimed at inflation targeting.
Furthermore, the IMF delegation noted recent reforms within Morocco’s tax system and administration, which have contributed to expanding the tax base while simultaneously alleviating the tax burden. As a result, tax revenues for 2024 are expected to exceed initial projections.
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