Economy News – Follow-up
Export prices for Russian wheat experienced continued upward momentum last week, coinciding with a decline in export volumes ahead of the annual export restrictions set to take effect by mid-month.
Dmitry Rilko, president of ICAR Consulting Company, noted that the price for Russian wheat, characterized by a protein content of 12.5%, increased by two dollars from the previous week to reach 245 dollars per ton, based on shipment delivery scheduled for March.
“We are observing a reduction in exports, a shrinking number of exporters, along with instances of consolidation and sector acquisitions. Consequently, prices are rising as anticipated,” Rilko stated.
The Russian government permits traders to export the maximum volume during the initial half of the season, spanning from July to February, before instituting an export cap of 63% this year, limiting the total to 10.6 million tons. These restrictions will come into effect on February 15.
In parallel, Sofikon reported that prices for Russian wheat with similar protein content and delivery conditions range between 241 and 245 dollars per ton, compared to last week’s range of 237 to 239 dollars.
On Monday, ICAR revised its wheat export projections for the 2024-25 season downward, decreasing the estimate to 43 million tons from a previous forecast of 43.5 million tons, attributing this adjustment to a reduction in stocks and margins.
Sofkon also lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 season to 38.3 million tons, down from an earlier estimate of 36.4 million tons.
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