U.S. Policy on Iranian Gas Imports: Implications for Iraq’s Energy Sector
On March 10, 2025, Khalifa Al-Tamimi asserted that the United States is likely to accept the reality of Iraq’s ongoing importation of Iranian gas. Al-Tamimi contended that this situation is particularly relevant in the short term.
Strategic Framework Agreement
Al-Tamimi remarked that Iraq remains closely connected to the strategic framework agreement with the United States, which highlights the significant economic interests Washington has in Iraq, particularly within the oil and gas sectors. He noted that substantial investments amounting to tens of billions of dollars make Iraq a crucial environment for U.S. investment.
Pressure Tactics and Future Decisions
Al-Tamimi explained that the administration of former President Donald Trump, by terminating the exemptions for importing Iranian gas – necessary for the operation of Iraqi power plants – was employing a tactic to exert pressure on Tehran. However, he believes that this strategy was time-sensitive and that Washington will ultimately have to recognize the current reality.
Despite the expiration of the U.S. exemption, Al-Tamimi highlighted that Iranian gas supplies are still reaching Iraqi power stations across various provinces, including Diyala. He emphasized that discussions around halting these supplies are misleading. He anticipates that Iranian authorities might lean towards implementing payment mechanisms in the near future to secure financial returns.
Alternative Gas Sources
When addressing the prospects for alternative energy sources, Al-Tamimi indicated that indicators suggest there are no feasible short-term alternatives for Iraq’s gas imports from Iran. He elaborated that developing solutions, such as sourcing gas from Turkmenistan or the Arabian Gulf, involves complex technical arrangements that may take one to two years to actualize.
Conclusion
As of March 6, 2025, U.S. exemptions for exporting Iranian gas to Iraq have lapsed, resulting in heightened anxiety among Iraqis anticipating a challenging summer. Nevertheless, the continuity of gas supplies from Iran remains effective, underscoring the intricate dynamics of Iraq’s energy dependencies and the broader geopolitical landscape.
