Economy News – Update
OPEC has reaffirmed its expectations for global oil demand growth in its March 2025 report, maintaining the forecast established in the previous month.
The organization projects an increase in global oil demand of 1.45 million barrels per day for 2025, followed by a growth of 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, identical to its February estimates.
Furthermore, OPEC has kept its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth steady at one million barrels per day for 2025 and confirmed an expected demand for OPEC oil at 42.6 million barrels per day in the same year.
OPEC’s projections also reflect an anticipated adaptation of the global economy to new trade policies, coinciding with recent U.S. customs duty measures.
The new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect Wednesday, prompting Canada to impose a 25% levy on U.S. goods, and the European Union has announced plans for counter-duties on U.S. imports valued at approximately €26 billion (about $28.33 billion) beginning in the near future.
According to OPEC, “continued commercial concerns are expected to influence the evolution of trade policies.”
OPEC’s oil demand projections diverge somewhat from those of other industry sources, with the organization anticipating that demand will not peak soon—contrasting with forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA predicts a more modest increase in oil demand of 1.1 million barrels per day for 2025, a figure that falls below OPEC’s estimates, although the variance is narrower than that for 2024.
### Kazakhstan’s Increased Production
In another development, OPEC has reported that Kazakhstan has led a substantial increase in crude oil production within the OPEC+ coalition, which includes both OPEC members and allied producers such as Russia. This increase highlights ongoing challenges facing the coalition as it strives to enforce production commitments.
OPEC noted that the group’s production rose by approximately 363,000 barrels per day in February, reaching a total of 41.01 million barrels per day, primarily driven by an uptick in Kazakhstani output.
This upward trend corresponds with the coalition’s decision to raise production by 138,000 barrels per day for April, coinciding with the recent tapering of the last segment of production cuts.
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