Analysis of OPEC Plus Developments
The eight OPEC Plus nations, comprising Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, convened online on March 3, 2025, to evaluate current global market conditions and prospects for oil production. In their communication, Iraq reaffirmed its commitment to offsetting excess oil production beyond the agreed limits.
During this meeting, the participating countries reiterated their commitment to the December 5, 2024 decision, which stipulates the return of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day. This reduction in oil exports will be implemented voluntarily starting April 1, 2025. The nations also agreed on the necessity of adjusting oil production levels, whether by halting output or reversing prior increases, to maintain market stability.
OPEC Plus emphasized its commitment to production levels and assured that they would make amends for any oversupply from December 2024 through June 2025. Member nations that have overshot production quotas will expedite their compensation plans and are expected to provide updates by March 17.
Current estimates place OPEC Plus oil production at approximately 4.431 million barrels per day. To align with the compensation requirements for excessive production, Iraq’s daily oil output must adhere to the following monthly targets:
| Month | Required Daily Production (million barrels) |
|---|---|
| April 2025 | 4.12 |
| May 2025 | 4.24 |
| June 2025 | 4.37 |
| July 2025 | 4.49 |
| August 2025 | 4.61 |
| September 2025 | 4.73 |
| October 2025 | 4.86 |
| November 2025 | 4.98 |
| December 2025 | 4.11 |
| February 2026 | 4.134 |
| April 2026 | 4.159 |
| May 2026 | 4.171 |
| June 2026 | 4.183 |
| July 2026 | 4.196 |
| August 2026 | 4.208 |
| September to December 2026 | 4.22 |
