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Iraq’s Looming Energy Crisis: 22-Hour Blackouts Ahead

### Energy Crisis Looms in Iraq: A Call for Urgent Intervention

Iraq is facing a deepening energy crisis that poses a significant risk to the stability of its electricity infrastructure. According to former parliamentarian Muhammad Othman Al-Khalidi, there are alarming forecasts suggesting that Iran may cease its gas supplies to Iraq by 2025. This situation is exacerbated by Iran’s internal challenges, including regional crises and international sanctions, which have impaired its ability to satisfy Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas, vital for operating around 30% of the country’s electrical plants.

### Dependency on Iranian Gas: An Inadequate Solution

Iraq’s reliance on Iranian gas to power its electrical stations is substantial, with imports of approximately 50 million cubic meters daily. Key facilities such as the Basra station, which previously produced 3,500 megawatts, the Al-Sadr station in Baghdad generating 560 megawatts, and the Mansourieh station in Diyala (producing 770 megawatts) are dependent on these gas supply lines.

However, these supplies face significant obstacles. Iran is currently grappling with a gas production shortfall, largely due to high domestic consumption amid extreme weather conditions. Additionally, international sanctions have hindered advancements in its gas extraction sector, contributing to a production decline of around 40% over the past decade. Aging gas transmission infrastructure also results in approximately 15% of supplies being lost before reaching Iraq.

The crisis is further compounded by domestic challenges within Iraq itself, including a severe water crisis that has reduced the Mosul Dam’s output from 755 megawatts to 375 megawatts, alongside widespread administrative corruption that undermines domestic gas investment projects. Notably, the World Bank estimates Iraq burns around 17 billion cubic meters of associated gas annually, making it the second-largest gas flaring country globally, trailing only Russia.

### Implications for Economic Stability

The frequent interruptions in Iranian gas supplies have led to a partial collapse of the electricity grid, especially in Baghdad and southern regions, where residents have experienced outages lasting up to 20 hours per day during the summers of 2023 and 2024. Analysts project that these interruptions could exceed 22 hours daily by the summer of 2025.

The spokesman for the Ministry of Electricity, Ahmed Moussa, has cautioned that diminished Iranian gas supplies could trigger a “real catastrophe,” as the operational capacity of critical power stations is entirely contingent upon these imports.

This energy crisis imposes substantial economic repercussions, costing Iraq approximately $4 billion annually for electricity imports from Iran. Moreover, the industrial sector is estimated to suffer losses equivalent to about 7% of the nation’s gross domestic product. The crisis also poses a direct threat to the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, which has pledged to prioritize electricity improvements amidst fears of renewed public protests reminiscent of the turmoil in 2019.

### Government Initiatives: Aspirations vs. Realities

To address these energy challenges, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has announced a strategic plan aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in gas by harnessing associated gas from oil production, which currently results in the burning of 17 billion cubic meters annually. This plan incorporates partnerships with international firms, such as Shell, for the Basra project, targeting the capture of 700 million cubic feet per day of flared gas by 2025. Furthermore, there is an initiative to transition to renewable energy sources through the Solar System project, which aims to generate 12,000 megawatts by 2030.

Despite these ambitions, the implementation of the plan is laden with challenges. Political opposition to contract terms with foreign entities and protracted budget approval processes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region hinder progress. The Ministry is also exploring alternative solutions, such as converting some power stations to operate on white oil, although this option is considerably more expensive, with costs estimated at 300% higher than those associated with gas, rendering it a temporary fix at best.

### Expert Insights and Proposed Solutions

Experts have underscored the urgency of addressing the ongoing crisis, with Othman Al-Khalidi stressing that Iraq must either liberate itself from reliance on Iranian gas by investing in domestic gas resources or risk becoming mired in perpetual crises. Ahmed Moussa from the Ministry of Electricity has reiterated that while alternative measures are being considered, they are costly and implausible in the long term.

To enhance Iraq’s energy outlook, experts advocate for immediate measures such as signing emergency contracts with Gulf nations, including Qatar, for liquefied gas imports, and rehabilitating outdated power stations to leverage solar energy. They also recommend establishing a national energy authority to oversee gas and electricity management and bolstering regional collaboration with nations like Turkey to improve water supply to the Mosul Dam, alongside engaging in the Gulf Electricity Project.

### Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Iraq

Iraq currently stands at a pivotal point: it can either translate its strategic plans into actionable outcomes or face the possibility of social unrest during upcoming summer seasons characterized by extensive electricity outages. The existing hurdles—from entrenched corruption to bureaucratic inefficiency—are formidable, yet the highest stakes lie with the average citizen, who may bear the brunt of any delays in effective solution implementation.

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