Iraq’s Energy Crisis: A Looming Catastrophe
Iraq is currently grappling with a significant energy crisis that poses a serious threat to its electricity infrastructure. As emphasized by former parliamentarian Muhammad Othman Al-Khalidi, Iran’s cessation of gas supplies to Iraq by 2025 could exacerbate this dilemma. Given that Iran faces its own internal challenges and international sanctions, it struggles to satisfy Iraq’s demand for gas, which is vital for operating roughly 30% of its power generation facilities.
This alarming situation is highlighted by the frequent electricity outages in Iraq, particularly in Baghdad and southern regions, which are likely to trigger public discontent as summer approaches.
The Underlying Issues: Dependency and Neglect
Iraq’s energy sector heavily relies on Iranian gas, importing approximately 50 million cubic meters daily to fuel essential power stations, including the Basra plant, which has a capacity of 3,500 megawatts, the Al-Sadr station in Baghdad with a capacity of 560 megawatts, and the Mansourieh plant in Diyala at 770 megawatts.
However, these gas supplies are vulnerable to several challenges. Iran’s internal crisis has seen a reduction in gas production due to rising domestic consumption during extreme temperatures, compounded by international sanctions that stymie exploration and production capabilities. Consequently, production has dropped by 40% over the last decade. Additionally, antiquated gas transmission infrastructure results in a 15% loss of supplies prior to their arrival in Iraq.
Adding to the crisis are internal factors within Iraq, such as a water crisis that has significantly decreased the output of the Mosul Dam—from 755 megawatts to just 375 megawatts—and widespread administrative corruption that hampers local gas investment initiatives. According to World Bank estimates, Iraq is one of the leading countries globally in gas flaring, burning approximately 17 billion cubic meters annually.
Consequences of the Crisis: Public Anger and Economic Fallout
The interruptions in Iranian gas supplies have led to a partial failure of Iraq’s electricity grid, particularly in Baghdad and the southern provinces. During the summers of 2023 and 2024, outages reached up to 20 hours a day, with projections suggesting they may exceed 22 hours in the summer of 2025.
Ahmed Moussa, spokesperson for the Ministry of Electricity, has warned that reduced Iranian gas supplies could result in a “real catastrophe,” as several key power stations rely entirely on gas from Iran. Any reduction in these supplies will significantly disrupt electricity production.
The economic implications of the crisis are severe, with importing electricity from Iran costing Iraq around $4 billion annually. The industrial sector is also projected to suffer losses equal to 7% of the gross domestic product. Furthermore, this crisis poses a direct threat to Prime Minister Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani’s government, which has made electricity reform a priority, raising concerns about a resurgence of protests reminiscent of those seen in 2019, triggered by declining public services.
Government Response: Ambition Confronting Reality
Prime Minister Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani has unveiled a strategy to achieve gas self-sufficiency through better utilization of associated gas, of which Iraq currently flares 17 billion cubic meters annually. This plan includes partnerships with international firms, such as Shell, aiming to capture 700 million cubic feet per day of flared gas by 2025, and a push towards renewable energy with a solar project targeting the generation of 12,000 megawatts by 2030.
However, these ambitious plans face significant hurdles, including opposition from political factions regarding contract terms with foreign investors and delays in budget approvals due to tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. The ministry is also exploring alternative approaches, such as converting certain power stations to operate on white oil, though this option comes with a 300% cost increase compared to gas, rendering it a temporary rather than sustainable solution.
Expert Insights and Recommendations
In light of the ongoing crisis, experts have underscored the urgent need for decisive action. Al-Khalidi has remarked that Iraq is at a crossroads, with the options being to either reduce dependency on Iranian gas through domestic resource development or risk a continuous cycle of crises. Moussa indicated that while the ministry is pursuing alternative solutions, they are often cost-prohibitive and lack sustainability.
Experts have suggested immediate measures, such as establishing emergency contracts with Gulf nations like Qatar to import liquefied gas, as well as upgrading existing power stations for solar energy production. Additionally, they recommend creating a national energy authority to oversee the gas and electricity sectors, fostering regional cooperation with countries like Turkey to enhance water flow towards the Mosul Dam and participating in regional electricity projects.
A Crucial Test for Leadership and Society
Iraq stands at a pivotal juncture. The government’s ability to translate strategic plans into actionable outcomes will determine whether it avoids social unrest during an impending summer characterized by extended electricity shortages. The challenges ahead are considerable, encompassing issues of governance and systemic inefficiency; however, it is the ordinary citizens who will bear the brunt of delayed solutions.