Iraq is currently facing a severe climate crisis marked by a delayed rainy season and significantly reduced precipitation over recent months. This situation raises concerns regarding its potential adverse effects on the agricultural sector and the nation’s water resources, with warnings that the upcoming season could be particularly devastating if appropriate measures are not implemented promptly and effectively.
In response, a company specializing in agricultural technology has launched a pilot program for Parametric Insurance in Iraq, recognizing the intensifying impacts of climate change—identified as a primary threat to Baghdad by international organizations.
Historically, Iraq has struggled to develop sustainable solutions for recurring crises since the mid-20th century. This has led to a situation where neighboring countries, particularly Turkey and Iran, leverage control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to achieve political and economic advantages without establishing a binding agreement that secures Mesopotamia’s water rights.
Wittra Ricc Management Services, in conjunction with the World Food Program, announced that this program is unprecedented in Iraq. The initiative is designed to “protect smallholder farmers and micro-projects from the risks associated with climate change, which can result in total crop failures,” as stated by the company.
The pilot will take place across four districts: Hamdania, Mosul, and Talkif in Nineveh Governorate, and Karbala. It aims to secure 400 smallholder farms from drought risks and offers protection for 400 micro-agricultural projects against heat waves.
The initiative seeks to provide “quick and transparent financial relief” to mitigate losses attributed to extreme climate phenomena, including severe heat and droughts. Parametric insurance serves as a method for compensating vulnerable communities affected by natural disasters linked to climate change. Unlike traditional insurance, it relies on specific pre-defined indicators—such as rainfall, wind speed, or temperature—enabling more immediate assessments of damage and compensation payouts.
This type of insurance is increasingly recognized as critical to countering the risks associated with natural disasters, particularly drought, which heavily impacts agricultural areas reliant on consistent water resources.
As one of the countries most susceptible to the repercussions of climate change, Iraq frequently grapples with droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall patterns that threaten agricultural productivity and farmer livelihoods. The United Nations categorizes Iraq as among the five nations most affected by climate change, exacerbated by declining rainfall and the continued use of outdated irrigation methods.
In 2021, Iraq experienced its second most significant drought in four decades due to an unprecedented reduction in rainfall. Over the past 40 years, the flow rates of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers—responsible for supplying approximately 98% of Iraq’s surface water—have decreased by 30-40%.
Drought conditions pose a serious threat to the historic marshlands in southern Iraq, recognized as a unique natural heritage site, further highlighting the urgency of addressing water management issues in a warming climate. Additionally, diminished river water levels have allowed seawater to encroach on southern lands, increasing salinity and jeopardizing agriculture, which is a primary livelihood for many communities.
The Iraqi government is collaborating with international organizations, including the United Nations and the World Bank, to fund climate adaptation projects. A national plan focusing on water management, desertification mitigation, and infrastructure improvements has also been initiated, in part as a response to the extensive damage inflicted by years of conflict.
As reported by the “Green Iraq” Observatory, there are projections indicating that the upcoming summer could experience unprecedented high temperatures over the past few years, further heightening the environmental crisis facing the country. Furthermore, efforts are underway to negotiate with Syria regarding the water quotas of the Euphrates River as part of Iraq’s endeavors to secure fair access to river water.
Iraq has seen an increase in temperatures of approximately 1.2 °C since the mid-20th century, with further increases expected to reach up to 2.5 °C by 2050, according to specialists. The Strategic Center for Human Rights asserts that the availability of fresh water has plummeted to less than 1,000 cubic meters per person annually, positioning Iraq among the nations experiencing extreme water stress. The recurring droughts over the past decade have led to a 30% reduction of agricultural land and more than a 50% decline in river levels compared to historic averages. Alarmingly, 39% of Iraqi territory faces desertification, with an additional 54% at risk of land degradation.
Iraq is set to host the fifth annual water conference concurrently with the 11th World Conference on Irrigation and Drainage organized by the World Irrigation and Drainage Association from April 27 to April 29. The SPI drought index for the Middle East region indicates a severe drought across Iraq, with measurements ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 on the normal scale, as reported by the Iraqi Air Residence Authority.
In a statement issued by the World Bank at the end of 2022, Iraq is identified as facing a pressing climate-related crisis that necessitates action toward “green and environmentally sustainable” development. To address its most urgent developmental needs, Iraq requires an estimated $233 billion in investments by 2040, reflecting 6% of its total annual output.
The water crisis brought on by climate change in Iraq has severely impacted agricultural areas, leading to decreased agricultural production and diminished livelihoods for approximately half the population, particularly in central and southern governorates. With many families relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the water scarcity has led to economic hardship, driving some to seek alternative income sources.
International assessments predict that by 2035, Iraq will experience a water shortfall of up to 10 billion cubic meters due to ongoing drought and inadequate land management, which has adversely affected 39% of its territory and caused declines in agricultural output.
Prominent political figure and human rights advocate Bakhtiar Amin has previously argued that Iraq could pursue internationalizing its water disputes but has so far engaged in dialogue with neighboring nations. He noted that these countries utilize water as a strategic advantage, producing and exporting agricultural goods to Iraq while withholding adequate water supplies.
Amin emphasized the necessity of international pressure on upstream nations, highlighting previous conversations with the International Court of Justice regarding this water issue. He pointed to a precedent involving a similar dispute between Hungary and Slovakia, in which the court favored the affected state and expressed readiness to address Iraq’s situation if officials in Baghdad demonstrated serious engagement with internationalizing the matter.
Iraq loses approximately 100 square kilometers of agricultural land annually due to desertification. Reports from the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources indicate that if severe droughts persist until 2025, the southern Euphrates River could dry up completely, while the Tigris River might become a low-flow waterway.
The prospect of another dry winter raises alarms for many observers. Though dry winters are typical in Iraq, current water conditions threaten the agricultural season significantly. Notably, two years ago marked Iraq’s historical reliance on groundwater due to drought conditions, resulting in unprecedented use of its groundwater reserves, estimated at 140 billion cubic meters. Meanwhile, the main reservoirs—Mosul, Dukan, and Al-Thadhar—are showing signs of long-term depletion, prompting concerns of a new environmental disaster in the making.