Climate Crisis Intensifies in Iraq: An Examination of Environmental, Economic, and Social Challenges
Iraq is currently grappling with an escalating climatic crisis, particularly as the summer of 2025 approaches with predictions of unprecedented heat. This rise in temperatures is anticipated to exacerbate existing environmental, economic, and social challenges, driven by accelerated climate change and the lack of effective internal solutions or external agreements with upstream countries, namely Turkey and Iran.
The “Green Iraq” Observatory forecasts that the upcoming summer is likely to register the highest temperatures recorded in recent years, thereby heightening the risk associated with the country’s enduring environmental crisis.
Since the mid-20th century, Iraq has struggled to devise lasting solutions to recurrent climate challenges. Control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has become a strategic leverage point for both Turkey and Iran, allowing these nations to secure political and economic gains at Iraq’s expense.
Over the past century, successive Iraqi administrations have failed to establish a binding agreement with these neighboring countries that would safeguard Mesopotamia’s water rights permanently.
Omar Abdel-Latif, a member of the Observatory, noted that “temperatures will begin to rise during Ramadan and continue to escalate throughout May and June, with peaks expected in early July and August.” He attributed this increase to ongoing climatic changes that remain inadequately addressed, highlighting that diminishing water levels in northern and southern Iraq, along with unchecked deforestation, are critical contributors to the worsening climate crisis.
Abdel-Latif urged authorities to implement swift and effective measures to combat these challenges before it is too late.
On February 11, the Parliamentary Water Committee disclosed ongoing negotiations with Syria regarding water allocation from the Euphrates River, part of broader efforts to secure equitable water flow to Iraq.
Specialists report that temperatures in Iraq have increased by 1.2 °C since the mid-20th century, with an additional rise of approximately 2.5 °C projected by 2050.
The Strategic Center for Human Rights reports that the per capita allocation of fresh water in Iraq has plummeted to less than 1,000 cubic meters annually, designating Iraq as one of the countries experiencing extreme water stress. A decade marked by repeated droughts has decreased agricultural land by over 30%, leading to a decline in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers by more than 50% compared to historical averages, exacerbated by insufficient rainfall and upstream policies. Furthermore, 39% of Iraq’s territory is suffering from desertification, with 54% at risk of deterioration.
Iraq is set to host the fifth annual water conference from April 27 to 29, in conjunction with the 11th World Conference on Irrigation and Drainage, supported by various international organizations.
The SPI drought index for December 2024 indicates that all regions of Iraq are experiencing extreme drought conditions, with severity ratings between 1.6 and 1.8 from normal levels, according to the Iraqi Meteorological Authority.
According to the United Nations, Iraq ranks among the five countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts. The World Bank has indicated, by the close of 2022, that Iraq faces urgent climatic challenges that must be addressed to transition toward a more sustainable and diversified economy, reducing reliance on carbon-heavy practices.
Investment needs are projected at $233 billion by 2040 to address Iraq’s urgent developmental goals in sustainable economic growth, which is equivalent to approximately 6% of the country’s total annual output.
Iraq’s water crisis is further compounded by climate-induced changes resulting in less rainfall and reduced river levels, which negatively impact agricultural production. A significant portion of the population, especially in central and southern provinces, relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. The resultant water scarcity has disrupted the means of subsistence for many families, compelling them to seek alternative economic opportunities.
International estimates suggest that Iraq could face a water deficit of up to 10 billion cubic meters by 2035, with drought and poor soil management contributing to a stark decline in agricultural output across 39% of its lands.
Bakhtiar Amin, a prominent politician and human rights activist, previously highlighted that Iraq could internationalize the water issue but has opted for diplomatic dialogue with neighboring nations. He noted that these countries wield water as a weapon, exporting agricultural products to Iraq while neglecting to furnish it with its fair water share.
Amin has called for international pressure on upstream countries and referenced a previous engagement with the International Court of Justice in The Hague regarding similar water disputes. Despite the court’s interest in the case, he expressed disappointment at the lack of serious commitment from Iraqi officials to pursue this internationalization.
Annually, Iraq loses approximately 100 square kilometers of agricultural land due to desertification. Reports from the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources indicate that severe drought expected through 2025 could lead to the total desiccation of the southern Euphrates River, while the Tigris may become a waterway with severely limited resources.
The prospect of a dry winter for Iraq raises significant concerns among experts. Past experiences of drought constitute a worrying precedent; however, the current challenges arise amid critical water shortages that threaten the agricultural season.
On December 18, 2024, Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, a leader in the Future of Iraq coalition, warned about the implications of the current winter season and its potential repercussions in the coming five years. He indicated that this crisis might compel farmers to adopt drip irrigation and manage water use diligently. The government has been urged to take urgent measures to improve Iraq’s water allocations through both diplomatic engagement and economic leverage.
Notably, Iraq has recently turned to groundwater sources due to drought conditions, a historical first. The country’s groundwater reserves are estimated at 140 billion cubic meters; however, the primary dams—Mosul, Dukan, and Al-Thadhar—are deteriorating, posing an additional environmental disaster risk, warn specialists.
