Economic Insights – Baghdad
In the final days of winter, Iraq has experienced a significant increase in rainfall, including heavy and widespread torrential downpours. This weather event offers hope for alleviating the prolonged drought that has afflicted the nation in recent years. However, while government and parliamentary officials have lauded the beneficial effects of these rains on water storage and agricultural land, experts caution against overly optimistic assessments, reiterating that Iraq continues to grapple with a severe drought crisis.
Beginning last week, a cold front, accompanied by rain and snowfall, swept across the country. This led to severe flooding that obstructed transportation and compelled several governorates to close schools due to hazardous weather conditions.
The United Nations Environment Program has identified Iraq as one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change risks globally, ranking among the lowest in preparedness for these challenges. The country faces an aqueous stress rate of 3.7 out of 5, with 5 representing the highest risk level.
The Parliamentary Agriculture and Water Committee has recognized the recent rains as crucial for Iraq’s agricultural landscape.
Committee member Thaer al-Jubouri stated that “while rain can sometimes be detrimental rather than beneficial, the recent precipitation, which covered vast areas of the country, arrived at an opportune time and serves as a critical source of irrigation for winter crops such as wheat and barley.”
Al-Jubouri further noted, “Iraq has been slow to implement rain harvesting strategies, which must include the establishment of dams and depressions to capture runoff. Currently, the country only makes limited use of the available rainwater.”
He emphasized that “the recent rains will help mitigate anticipated water shortages next summer,” explaining that water bodies, particularly the marshes, will benefit more from the rain, as the water flowing from southern Iraq and Iran, combined with domestic rainfall, will enhance these areas.
It is estimated that Iraq requires approximately 77 billion cubic meters of water to satisfy its industrial, agricultural, and municipal demands, yet only about 35 billion cubic meters are currently available. This shortfall poses a significant challenge for the nation.
Water Resources Minister Aoun Dhiab Abdullah announced that the recent rainfall has bolstered Iraq’s water storage capacity, indicating that this water will be utilized for storage at the Al-Tharthar Dam, in addition to directing surplus water from the Mosul Dam.
Abdullah noted that the upper dam’s capacity has increased by half a billion cubic meters due to the rainfall, which has lessened the deficit of more than five billion cubic meters caused by reliance on water imports from Türkiye and Syria.
He highlighted that water imports from Türkiye to the modern dam currently reach 450 cubic meters per second—150 cubic meters of which are stored, while 300 cubic meters flow into the Euphrates River. In contrast, the Mosul Dam is receiving imports of only 250 cubic meters per second while releasing 500 cubic meters per second into the Tigris River, indicating that releases are outpacing inflows.
Abdullah mentioned that regions including Baghdad, Diyala, Salah al-Din, and the Anbar Desert experienced significant rainfall over the past several days. However, northern regions, especially near the Mosul Dam, received comparatively little precipitation, a development that is not viewed positively.
He added that while rainwater from the Karun River cannot be effectively harnessed in southern Basra due to its direct flow towards the Gulf, water from the building will be directed to Hor al-Huwaiza and the central marshes, which is expected to yield beneficial outcomes next summer.
In closing, the minister asserted that the water level of the Euphrates River is currently stable and that any surplus rainwater will be stored in Lake Al-Habbaniyah for future use, preserving environmental balance and meeting the needs of the tourist region.
Currently, drought conditions affect more than 90% of Iraq’s territory, with desertification encroaching steadily—particularly in the south—where saline seawater infiltrates inland areas. Since 1970, Iraq has lost over half of its arable land and continues to lose an additional 100 square kilometers of agricultural land annually.
Water and agricultural expert Tahsin Al-Mousawi warned that citizens should not become complacent regarding Iraq’s water resources.
Al-Mousawi stated that “the recent rainfall amounts are not substantial relative to the areas they covered, with figures ranging from 6 to 40 mm, which, based on assessments, are quite minimal.”
He explained that “the flooding seen in urban areas is primarily attributable to inadequate infrastructure and poorly designed systems that fail to accommodate population density.”
Regarding the torrential rains received from the eastern regions in Maysan and Wasit, he noted that the rainfall percentage was favorable.
On the potential for utilizing rainwater, Al-Mousawi elaborated that the recent precipitation could revitalize a small section of the marshes and have aided farmers in terms of winter cropping practices.
Al-Mousawi cautioned against miscommunicating the implications of recent rains on water storage, emphasizing that Iraq remains entrenched in a drought crisis with reservoirs in dire condition since 2019, as evidenced by notable declines in agricultural output, rising pollution levels, and increased livestock mortality.
The ongoing water scarcity crisis in Iraq has intensified in recent years due to a combination of factors, including poor water management, the effects of climate change, and diminishing water inflows from upstream sources in Türkiye and Iran. According to data from the United Nations, 90% of Iraq’s rivers are contaminated, with projections indicating that by 2035, Iraq will only be able to meet 15% of its water needs.
