Economic Insights – Update
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its monthly oil market report, highlighting that the global oil supply is projected to surpass demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day this year. This forecast comes in light of revised growth expectations for oil demand in 2025.
According to the Paris-based organization, the surplus could potentially escalate by an additional 400,000 barrels per day if the OPEC+ alliance decides to further ease production cuts without imposing restrictions on output increases related to allocated quotas.
The IEA has adjusted its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 downward by 70,000 barrels per day, setting it at approximately one million barrels per day. Notably, Asia, particularly the Chinese petrochemical sector, is expected to play a significant role in this growth.
The agency further indicated that demand during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 fell short of expectations, attributed to an unusually turbulent economic environment.
The IEA noted, “Recent imposition of new U.S. customs duties, along with escalating countermeasures, has heightened overall risks. Consequently, recent data on oil demand has been disappointing, leading to slight reductions in growth estimates for both the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.”
For continuous updates, subscribe to our channel on Tilekram
