Economic Alternatives for Iraq Following U.S. Export Restrictions
On February 6, 2025, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi presented a series of alternatives to mitigate the repercussions of the recent decision by the U.S. President to halt exports of Iranian electricity and gas to Iraq. This policy shift poses significant challenges, particularly concerning the 8,000 megawatts generated by power stations that rely on Iranian gas, as well as over 3,000 megawatts imported through four key transmission lines: Khanaqin-Sarbil, Khor Al-Zubair to Mashman, Diyala-Mervad, and Building-Cark.
In his analysis, Al-Marsoumi outlined potential immediate solutions, advocating for support in establishing home solar energy stations. He emphasized the importance of providing banking facilities and loans to citizens to encourage this transition. Additionally, he highlighted the feasibility of utilizing floating power stations, such as the Turkish Carboorchib vessels, to address substantial portions of the electricity supply gap. Converting several power stations to operate on black oil or diesel, despite the significant environmental concerns, was also mentioned as a short-term measure, along with implementing demand-side management to optimize electricity use.
Looking to longer-term solutions, Al-Marsoumi stressed the urgency of developing infrastructure at the Grand Port to facilitate the import of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is supported by a prior agreement between Iraq and Qatar. He also noted the advancement of solar energy projects with key international partners, including Total Energy from France and Akoa Saudi Power, projected to contribute approximately 3,000 megawatts to the national grid within three years.
Furthermore, the potential role of Turkmen gas as a critical energy source was discussed. Al-Marsoumi indicated that contracts must first be established with a transit company, likely the Iranian gas company, to facilitate the transport of Turkmen gas through Iran. He estimated that this contracting and preparatory work could take around eight months, contingent on successful negotiations. The existing contract between Iraq and Turkmenistan allows for the export of 20 million cubic meters of gas per day to Baghdad, translating to an estimated generation of 4,000 megawatts.
Al-Marsoumi’s insights underscore the vital need for Iraq to explore diverse energy sources and enhance its infrastructure to ensure energy security amidst changing geopolitical landscapes.
