Economy Update – Baghdad
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported that Kazakhstan has significantly increased its crude oil production, propelling a notable rise in output for the OPEC+ coalition in February. This surge underscores the ongoing challenges the group faces in enforcing compliance with agreed production targets.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC indicated that the total production of the OPEC+ alliance—which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia—rose by 363,000 barrels per day in February, reaching a cumulative total of 41.01 million barrels per day, largely driven by heightened output in Kazakhstan.
The increase in February exceeded the coalition’s planned increment of 138,000 barrels per day set for April, coinciding with the gradual reduction of previous production cuts.
Oil prices experienced volatility in response to this decision to escalate production, compounded by concerns regarding tariffs.
Kazakhstan’s production, which now ranks among the highest globally, has outstripped its designated quota within OPEC+ during a period when major U.S. oil producers are ramping up output from the Tenzz field, the largest oil field in the country.
As per OPEC’s data, gathered from secondary sources, Kazakhstan’s crude oil output reached 1.767 million barrels per day in February, a significant increase from 1.570 million barrels per day in January, surpassing its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million barrels per day.
The report also highlighted that several other OPEC+ nations, including the UAE, Nigeria, and Gabon, are producing above their allocations, albeit at lower than Kazakhstan’s levels.
Sources indicated that Kazakhstan’s record production levels contributed to OPEC+’s decision to proceed with the production increases slated for April. Kazakhstan officials have expressed their commitment to curtail production in March, April, and May.
Following the release of the OPEC report, oil prices stabilized, with Brent crude maintaining prior session gains and trading above $70 per barrel.
OPEC also reiterated its forecasts for global oil demand, maintaining its growth projections unchanged in the report. The organization expects global oil demand to rise by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, reflecting updates from previous month assessments.
