Iraq has been grappling with a profound water crisis over the past several years, which has escalated to alarming levels in the last four years due to a significant reduction in water levels caused by regional drought conditions.
As Baghdad prepares to host two crucial international conferences focused on water management for the first time this April, the Ministry of Water Resources has declared 2025 as a year of extreme drought. This announcement coincides with the imminent visit of Turkish officials to Baghdad.
Since the mid-20th century, Iraq has struggled to implement effective long-term solutions to this recurring crisis. Neighboring countries, particularly Turkey and Iran, exert significant pressure on Iraq by controlling the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to secure political and economic concessions.
A century of Iraqi governance has seen repeated failures to establish a binding agreement with these neighboring states, ensuring the region’s water rights permanently. Minister of Water Resources Aoun Dhiab Abdullah stated that a Turkish delegation is expected in Baghdad next month, followed by an Iraqi delegation traveling to Ankara, intending to negotiate a clear agreement addressing the upcoming drought and water scarcity anticipated this summer.
Minister Abdullah revealed the existence of a prior agreement between Turkey and Syria regarding water allocations, emphasizing that the allocation of the Euphrates River’s resources from the Ataturk Dam, and another agreement with Iraq, which stipulates a division of water inflow—42% for Syria and 58% for Iraq—remains in effect.
The current water inflows into the Euphrates from Turkey fluctuate but consistently exceed 400 m³/s, intended to enhance reservoir capacities for the summer. In contrast, the Tigris River’s inflow is remarkably lower at approximately 250 m³/s. Concerns are rising that water inflow from the Euphrates will dwindle if weather conditions stabilize in Syria over the next two months.
Iraq will be hosting the fifth annual water conference in conjunction with the 11th World Conference on Irrigation and Drainage from April 27 to 29, backed by international organizations.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Middle East, reported in December 2024, indicated severe drought conditions across all regions of Iraq, scoring 1.6 to 1.8, well below the normal threshold, according to the Iraqi Meteorological Authority. On December 24, Iraq began exploring avenues to internationalize its water crisis with Turkey, potentially involving international courts to resolve disputes.
As of late December, rainfall levels have remained below average, significantly threatening Iraq’s agricultural sector due to dwindling water reserves and insufficient water allocations from neighboring nations.
Prominent political figure and human rights advocate Bakhtiar Amin noted that while Iraq has the potential to internationalize its water issues, current diplomatic channels remain the preferred approach. He criticized neighboring countries for exploiting water as a strategic leverage, often exporting agricultural products to Iraq rather than fulfilling water-sharing agreements.
Amin emphasized the urgent need for international pressure on upstream nations, recounting previous engagements with the International Court of Justice concerning water rights issues, particularly referencing a past arbitration case between Hungary and Slovakia, which ruled in favor of the affected state.
Typically, rainfall in Iraq begins in November, increasing in frequency through December; however, last season saw a significant delay, with heavy rains arriving only in February.
Each year, Iraq loses approximately 100 square kilometers of arable land to desertification. Recent reports from the Ministry of Water Resources warn that severe drought conditions projected until 2025 could completely dry up the southern section of the Euphrates River, and the Tigris River risks becoming a limited resource.
The possibility of a dry winter in Iraq raises concerns among analysts, as this climatic phenomenon has persistently impacted the nation but now threatens to coincide with ongoing water scarcity challenges, jeopardizing agriculture.
On December 18, 2024, Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, leader of the Future of Iraq coalition, cautioned about the drought indicators for the current winter season and their long-term implications. He urged farmers to adopt drip irrigation methods while calling on the government to take immediate measures to increase Iraq’s water quotas from upstream countries, leveraging all available diplomatic and economic tools.
Furthermore, Ibtisam Al-Hilali, a member of the Agriculture and Water Committee, highlighted Turkey’s non-compliance with existing water-sharing agreements, urging the Iraqi government to negotiate earnestly to secure water rights.
The total water consumption in Iraq is approximately 53 billion cubic meters annually, contrasted with a favorable season’s river inflow of around 77 billion cubic meters, which drops to about 44 billion during droughts. Notably, every billion cubic meters of water equates to a loss of approximately 260,000 dunams of cultivated land.
Projections from the Water Stress Index indicate that Iraq could face a future devoid of rivers by 2040, with both the Tigris and Euphrates potentially failing to reach the Persian Gulf. The study forecasts that by 2025, the effects of severe drought will be acutely evident, resulting in the near-total drought of the Euphrates in the south and a limited flow in the Tigris.
Increasing temperatures in Iraq have contributed to a significant decline in annual rainfall, currently estimated at a reduction of 30%, which could escalate to 65% by 2050.
The rising cost of livestock feed has become a significant burden for herders, as the scarcity of green pastures soared feed prices from 300,000 dinars per ton to 800,000 dinars.
Experts warn that if conditions persist, Iraq faces an environmental disaster that could lead to widespread humanitarian crises, displacing rural populations to urban centers. In light of ineffective current strategies, Iraqi authorities are encouraged to formulate a new national water management strategy focused on rational usage, improved irrigation policies, equitable distribution across provinces, and stringent action to prevent local abuses.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani stated in March 2024 that seven million Iraqis are already affected by climate change and the monopolization of freshwater by neighboring countries, as Turkey and Iran’s major dams have blocked approximately 70% of Iraq’s water share. This crisis positions Iraq among the top five countries globally impacted by climate change.
Iraq has recently resorted to groundwater extraction due to a severe lack of surface water—an unprecedented historical development. Current groundwater reserves are estimated at 140 billion cubic meters, while the primary dams, including Mosul, Dukan, and Al-Thadhar, face impending challenges that may lead to environmental catastrophes.
Additionally, much of the marshlands, once vibrant ecosystems, are now almost devoid of population, turning previously lively areas into arid landscapes devoid of tourism, fishing, and livestock breeding opportunities.
Iraq continues to struggle with detrimental water policies from Turkey, which has constructed numerous dams on the Tigris River, and Iran, wherein the alteration of river courses has restricted Iraq’s access to vital water resources. The compounded effects of persistent drought and insufficient rainfall over the past four years have severely exacerbated Iraq’s environmental and agricultural challenges.
The total volume of water from the Tigris and Euphrates dropped sharply from 93.47 billion cubic meters in 2019 to 49.59 billion cubic meters in 2020, a stark indication of the impact of upstream actions.
Each summer, Iraq confronts a worsening water crisis that impacts its marshes and agricultural land, leading to significant reductions in irrigated areas and compromised access to drinkable water supplies, which suffer from diminished river levels.
